Risks Stemming from Current Low Volatility Conditions
February 01, 2018
Volatility

Risks Stemming from Current Low Volatility Conditions

Over the last year we have seen an incredible period of low volatility that is arguably building systematic liquidity risks when we enter a period of normalization.  These risks were highlighted in the Bank of Canada’s November 2017 Financial System Review.  In that review, the BoC discussed the assessment of...

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3 weeks ago
Have the Tides Turned for the Troubled Goldcorp?
January 23, 2018
Bullish Outlook

Have the Tides Turned for the Troubled Goldcorp?

The last few years have been a struggle for Goldcorp investors.  The company has been overshadowed by declines in earnings, falling gold production and increased costs.  Many investors have abandoned the stock for other gold miners with more momentum.  Yet there are a number of green shoots that suggest the management is...

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4 weeks ago
5 Potential Canadian Market Surprises for 2018
January 04, 2018
Concepts

5 Potential Canadian Market Surprises for 2018

What better way to wrap up the 2017 year than with a market forecast.  As a trader, I always look at a forecast as establishing a baseline from which to build investment themes for the upcoming year.  The obstacle however, lies in that there is substantial herding in economic forecasting and rarely does an analyst stick their...

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2 months ago
Bulling the Market with a Ratio Call Spread
November 29, 2017
Bullish Outlook

Bulling the Market with a Ratio Call Spread

Investors have had a good run over the last two months as we have seen the Canadian TSX 60 index roar higher 9% from a September low of 877.00 to its highs near 955.00.  The question on everyone’s mind – is it over or is there more room to go?  Is it too late to buy or should an investor wait on the sidelines for a...

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3 months ago
Dollarama: Context on Trading the Stock vs. Options
October 06, 2017
Bullish Outlook

Dollarama: Context on Trading the Stock vs. Options

Dollarama has been a bright spot in the Canadian markets throughout the last year.  During the first half of the year, the share price has been working considerably higher off its $93.27 52-week low.  Recently investors were rewarded when the company released its 2nd quarter results and subsequently announced plans to buy...

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5 months ago
Unintended Consequences of Systematic Covered Call Writing
September 07, 2017
Concepts

Unintended Consequences of Systematic Covered Call Writing

Enhancing income and returns through covered call writing has become one of the most common strategies being adopted by investors.  Arguably selling calls against shares and ETFs is considered a conservative strategy that almost any Canadian retail investor can access, in and out of their registered accounts. While many...

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6 months ago
Hedging Canadian Bank Risk with Debit Spreads
August 01, 2017
Protection

Hedging Canadian Bank Risk with Debit Spreads

The recent hawkish shift and rate hike by the Bank of Canada has ushered in a resounding 10% rise in the Canadian dollar in a few short months.  This has not only put stress broadly on Canadian equities, but it has instilled concerns about the tightening of credit conditions on an already over indebted Canadian consumer....

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7 months ago
Bottom Fishing Cenovus? Hedging may be Appropriate
May 10, 2017
Bullish Outlook

Bottom Fishing Cenovus? Hedging may be Appropriate

Cenovus stirred up the Canadian oil industry back on March 29th with an announcement on the $17.7 billion-dollar purchase of ConocoPhillips’ Canadian oil sand assets. To say the deal was not well received is an understatement as the stock dropped over 10% on the announcement and continued to actively distribute lower. From...

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10 months ago
Peak Optimism Weighing on Canadian Banks
April 05, 2017
Risk Management

Peak Optimism Weighing on Canadian Banks

Reflecting on the last 9 months, we can decisively identify the global reflation trade as the primary driver of the equity rally. This was considerably accelerated by the Republican sweep in the U.S. elections driven by expectations of new growth driven by tax cuts and fiscal spending. During that roaring bull advance, it was...

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11 months ago
Is the Extreme Bullish Speculation in Oil a Warning?
February 06, 2017
Bearish Outlook

Is the Extreme Bullish Speculation in Oil a Warning?

The OPEC agreement to cut production back in late 2016 ushered in a further wave of enthusiasm that pushed oil and the energy sector higher, with the belief that the oil bear market was over and long gone. Coupled with the Trump reflation trade enthusiasm, we have witnessed a very strong finish in 2016. The price of WTI oil...

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1 year ago