There are many signs suggesting that the current economic business cycle, debt cycle and market cycle are in the mature to late stages. In traditional manner, there will eventually be a peak to trough correction that will play out no different then any other time in the past. As we approach the inevitable, the buy and hold,...
Gold has been on a tear recently. Not because of any real change in supply demand metrics. This is all about defensive positioning against a perceived devaluation of paper currency. In short gold bulls are playing the crisis insurance card… again! I am not about to tell you to buy gold. I’ve talked about it in the past but...
The TSX composite index finished higher for a third consecutive day. Might have been four had Monday not been a holiday. But… is it real? Mindful that a three-day rally does not make a bull market it appears there has been a major change in sentiment. Rallying in the face of higher oil prices is a shift in sentiment. As is...
I have a love hate relationship with Canadian financial institutions. Canadian banks are tough competition for someone in the money management business. As an investment however, they are well capitalized – more than can be said for many European banks – and pay healthy dividends, which are bumped up on a regular basis. Or...
Those that regularly follow my articles and forecasts can easily ascertain that I am a worry wart. Fortunately, or unfortunately I am always skeptical on overly optimistic views on stocks and the economy. So what am I skeptical on now? I am skeptical on the supposed turn around in the Canadian economy. Yes, things have improved...
The last two months have dynamically changed the narrative toward the Canadian economy. Over those two months, the markets have substantially shifted, including: 15% rise in the Canadian Dollar from its $0.68 lows to its current levels around $0.78. 27% rise in oil prices from their lows below $30.00 to around $38.00 today. 16%...
Volatility represents the underlying stock price fluctuation, not the price trend. The degree of fluctuation can vary whether a stock’s price trend is bullish and advancing, bearish and declining, or remains in a steady range over time. Historical volatility can be calculated based on a stock’s actual past trading...
With gold having a strong start to the year and a solid 20% off its 2015 lows, the bulls vs. bear’s arguments have taken center stage. Let’s review both arguments. Bear Case for Lower Gold Gold is an inflation hedge and performs poorly in deflationary times. The most commonly referenced example is the 20-30% decline in gold...