Risk Management

Bottom Fishing Cenovus? Hedging may be Appropriate
May 10, 2017
Bullish Outlook

Bottom Fishing Cenovus? Hedging may be Appropriate

Patrick Ceresna

Cenovus stirred up the Canadian oil industry back on March 29th with an announcement on the $17.7 billion-dollar purchase of ConocoPhillips’ Canadian oil sand assets. To say the deal was not well received is an understatement as the stock dropped over 10% on the announcement and continued to actively distribute lower. From...

331
0
Like
2 months ago
It’s Good to be the Insurer
May 04, 2017
Risk Management

It’s Good to be the Insurer

Hans Albrecht

  Option pricing, or insurance, is a relative value product. For instance, a $300 annual premium for $1 million of life insurance coverage for a young, healthy individual is reasonable. However, that same $300 price tag to insure a 65 year-old smoker with high blood pressure is way too cheap. When it comes to life...

244
0
Like
2 months ago
Peak Optimism Weighing on Canadian Banks
April 05, 2017
Risk Management

Peak Optimism Weighing on Canadian Banks

Patrick Ceresna

Reflecting on the last 9 months, we can decisively identify the global reflation trade as the primary driver of the equity rally. This was considerably accelerated by the Republican sweep in the U.S. elections driven by expectations of new growth driven by tax cuts and fiscal spending. During that roaring bull advance, it was...

514
0
Like
3 months ago
Fading the Trump Hysteria
January 05, 2017
Protection

Fading the Trump Hysteria

Patrick Ceresna

The stock markets are first and foremost a behavioral exercise. Investors are always trying to price in the future – 6 to 9 months in advance. To put that statement into perspective, one must recognize that the market is therefore driven by perceptions and assumptions more than it is about realized certainties. That...

547
0
Like
6 months ago
Gold versus Gold Stocks
June 20, 2016
Bullish Outlook

Gold versus Gold Stocks

Richard Croft

Gold has been on a tear recently. Not because of any real change in supply demand metrics. This is all about defensive positioning against a perceived devaluation of paper currency. In short gold bulls are playing the crisis insurance card… again! I am not about to tell you to buy gold. I’ve talked about it in the past but...

344
0
Like
1 year ago
Has the Tide Turned for the Canadian Economy?
April 01, 2016
Index Options

Has the Tide Turned for the Canadian Economy?

Patrick Ceresna

The last two months have dynamically changed the narrative toward the Canadian economy. Over those two months, the markets have substantially shifted, including: 15% rise in the Canadian Dollar from its $0.68 lows to its current levels around $0.78. 27% rise in oil prices from their lows below $30.00 to around $38.00 today. 16%...

292
0
Like
1 year ago
Volatility’s Impact When Hedging Market Exposure
March 16, 2016
Protection

Volatility’s Impact When Hedging Market Exposure

Richard Croft

Volatility represents the underlying stock price fluctuation, not the price trend. The degree of fluctuation can vary whether a stock’s price trend is bullish and advancing, bearish and declining, or remains in a steady range over time. Historical volatility can be calculated based on a stock’s actual past trading...

309
0
Like
1 year ago
Survival of the Fittest in the Oil Patch
January 19, 2016
Risk Management

Survival of the Fittest in the Oil Patch

Jason Ayres

I was screening some of the headlines in the Globe and Mail this morning and came across an update on Suncor (TSX:SU) and its bid for Canadian Oil Sands (TSX:COS). According to the Calgary Press, Suncor and Canadian Oil Sands have settled on a $6.6 billion deal which includes stock and debt. Interestingly enough, Suncor...

266
0
Like
1 year ago