Probably the most noteworthy event in the first half of 2015 was the surprise rate cut issued by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in the first quarter. It was designed to provide “insurance against a downturn” in light of the sharp decline in oil prices. The BoC was right to be concerned. Unfortunately policymakers underestimated...
For the first half of 2015 global financial markets have been obsessed with short term noise. We have witnessed a succession of exacerbated reactions to on again off again negotiations with Greece, waste of time debates on the timing of a Fed rate hike or endless dissections of monthly jobs data where 20% revisions are more the...
Brexit is a reality! Despite the betting odds, despite the financial markets’ expectation that we would see a “remain” outcome, the British electorate knowing for bucking the odds voted to exit the European Union. And now we face the inevitable fallout. Unfiltered headline noise will set the stage this week. Witness the...
Gold has been on a tear recently. Not because of any real change in supply demand metrics. This is all about defensive positioning against a perceived devaluation of paper currency. In short gold bulls are playing the crisis insurance card… again! I am not about to tell you to buy gold. I’ve talked about it in the past but...
Could we see lower interest rates? On the surface it seems counterintuitive with North American rates near zero and a Federal Reserve on a track to normalization. But with some industrialized economies – notably Switzerland, Germany and Japan – issuing debt with negative rates, near zero is beginning to look like the best...
In the past couple of months, I authored three commentaries talking about covered straddles. There was the blog on Bombardier (April 18, 2016), another on energy stocks (May 3, 2016) and finally one on gold stocks (May 9, 2016). I call it the double up double down approach to investing. Without re-hashing the specifics of the...
The TSX composite index finished higher for a third consecutive day. Might have been four had Monday not been a holiday. But… is it real? Mindful that a three-day rally does not make a bull market it appears there has been a major change in sentiment. Rallying in the face of higher oil prices is a shift in sentiment. As is...
A covered call strategy carries about 50% to 70% of the risk associated with a long equity position. We accept that thesis as a rule of thumb, but how does one square that position mathematically? The simple answer is to evaluate the downside protection accorded by the premium. We receive more money and, by extension, more...
I have a love hate relationship with Canadian financial institutions. Canadian banks are tough competition for someone in the money management business. As an investment however, they are well capitalized – more than can be said for many European banks – and pay healthy dividends, which are bumped up on a regular basis. Or...
I talked about gold… reluctantly, back in February. I also read with interest comments from Patrick Ceresna who, also in February, penned a two-part thesis on why gold should move higher. And Patrick provided some strategies for investors to take advantage of his bull case which, I might add, have paid off handsomely. I also...