Stocks… Oversold and Ready to Rally?
How quickly sentiment can change. Global markets have rallied despite little concrete evidence of a solution to macro uncertainties facing the global economy. Which is to say; Europe? The optimism reflects a view that a broad solution will soon be implemented. And to that end, we have European leaders and large European banks...
Burning Some Oil
Canada’s S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index slumped 38% from its March high to last week’s low, as the price of Nymex crude oil for future delivery collapsed from US$114 per barrel in late April to US$76 per barrel this past week. The principal reason cited, and there are many points of view as to what is actually driving the...
Berlin Blues
After weeks of speculation, parliamentarians in Berlin last week voted to increase German taxpayers’ exposure to worthless Greek sovereign debt by approving a near-doubling of the lending capacity of the eurozone bailout fund. Stock markets around the world rallied early in the week in giddy anticipation of the vote, while...
Copper Oversold?
Caught in last week’s bout of risk-aversion was the entire commodity complex. Copper and oil, two of the most economically sensitive materials, sold off dramatically as traders reacted to growing fears of declining overseas growth. A slowdown in China was of particular concern as was the market’s disappointment that the US...
A Bet on Dividends
An old saw in the investment industry is that bull markets climb a wall of worry. If I may be allowed a variant on that theme, global stock markets are about to embark on the Fall of worry. What with third quarter earnings season around the corner, the continuing countdown to a Greek default, the funding of Euro banks and the...
Options as Insurance
Reams of economic data has come down the pike since the end of August. And most of it painting a very bleak picture! The New York-based Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, a widely-watched monthly gauge of consumer sentiment in the US, sank to 44.5 in August, down sharply from a reading of 59.2 in July, and well off...
Prepped for an Upside Surprise?
Pessimism is ruling the day. Any debate questions whether the glass is half empty or perhaps all empty. The major stock markets ended August with a loss, as investors shied away from risk and fled into the usual safe-haven assets: gold and US Treasuries. The tide ebbed, and, as they say, all the boats sank. It all sounds pretty...
Gold Miner’s Day in the Sun?
Gold, everyone’s favorite precious metal, ended the week down from its record high of US$1,917.90 per ounce last Tuesday. December futures contracts closed the week at US$1,797.30 per ounce, down 5% in the past week, as gold posted its first weekly loss in eight weeks. In after-hours trading, though, it had climbed back up to...
Finding Value!
This is shaping up to be a bad quarter on a macro basis, with flattening growth curves all around. Credit issues dominate in Europe and the US. However, a credit downgrade doesn’t mean an equity downgrade. There are burgeoning economies around the world that have near junk ratings but have roaring equity markets. The reason...
Bear in the woods or bull in the ring?
Stock markets declined steeply on the week as the fear factor took its toll. The S&P/TSX Composite Index retreated 6.0% week-over-week, mainly on a slide in commodities, led by crude oil, which dropped to near US$85 per barrel, before recovering to US$87 by Friday’s close. In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial average...
Richard Croft
President, CIO & Portfolio Manager
Croft Financial Group
191 posts
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